Introduction:
The global financial landscape in 2025 will be defined by one dominant force: the decisions of central banks. Central bank policies—ranging from interest rate adjustments to quantitative tightening—will dictate volatility in forex markets, influence gold’s safe-haven appeal, and reshape the trajectory of cryptocurrencies. As the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and People’s Bank of China navigate inflation, growth, and digital currency adoption, traders must decode monetary policy shifts to capitalize on currency pairs, precious metals, and digital assets. Whether it’s a surprise rate hike triggering a dollar rally or a CBDC rollout disrupting stablecoins, understanding these dynamics will separate the winners from the unprepared in the year ahead.
1. Central Bank Policy Tools: The Levers Moving Markets
Central banks wield immense influence over global financial markets, dictating the ebb and flow of currencies, commodities like gold, and even digital assets such as Bitcoin. Their policy decisions create ripples across Forex, precious metals, and cryptocurrency markets, shaping trading strategies and investor sentiment. Understanding these tools is crucial for traders looking to navigate the complexities of 2025’s financial landscape.
This section explores the key monetary policy instruments central banks use to steer economies and how these mechanisms impact Forex, gold, and cryptocurrency markets.
1.1 Interest Rates: The Primary Driver of Currency Valuations
Interest rates are the most potent tool in a central bank’s arsenal. By adjusting benchmark rates (such as the Federal Funds Rate in the U.S. or the ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate), central banks influence borrowing costs, inflation, and currency strength.
How Interest Rates Affect Markets
- Forex Markets: Higher interest rates attract foreign capital, strengthening the domestic currency (e.g., a Fed rate hike typically boosts the USD). Conversely, rate cuts weaken a currency as investors seek higher yields elsewhere.
- Gold: Since gold is a non-yielding asset, lower interest rates increase its appeal as an inflation hedge. Conversely, rising rates often pressure gold prices as investors shift to interest-bearing assets.
- Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and other digital assets sometimes behave as risk assets. Tighter monetary policy (higher rates) can suppress crypto demand, while dovish policies (low rates) may fuel speculative inflows.
Example: In 2022-2023, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes strengthened the USD, crushed gold prices, and contributed to a crypto bear market. In 2025, traders will closely watch central bank rate trajectories for directional cues.
1.2 Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tightening (QT): Liquidity’s Market Impact
Central banks expand or contract money supply through QE (bond purchases) and QT (balance sheet reductions). These policies directly affect liquidity, inflation expectations, and asset valuations.
Market Implications of QE vs. QT
- Forex: QE devalues a currency by increasing supply (e.g., JPY weakness during BoJ’s prolonged easing). QT can have the opposite effect.
- Gold: QE fuels inflation fears, boosting gold as a store of value. QT may suppress gold if deflationary pressures emerge.
- Cryptocurrencies: Easy money policies (QE) often correlate with crypto bull runs, while QT can trigger sell-offs.
Example: The ECB’s 2024 shift from QE to QT strengthened the Euro but pressured European equities and crypto markets.
1.3 Forward Guidance: Shaping Market Expectations
Central banks use forward guidance—statements about future policy intentions—to manage market expectations. Clarity (or ambiguity) in messaging can trigger volatility.
Trading Implications
- Forex: Hawkish guidance (hinting at rate hikes) lifts a currency; dovish signals weaken it.
- Gold & Crypto: If a central bank signals prolonged low rates, both assets may rally on inflation concerns.
Example: In 2023, the Fed’s pivot from “higher for longer” to potential rate cuts weakened the USD and ignited a gold and crypto rally.
1.4 Reserve Requirements and Open Market Operations
While less prominent than interest rates, reserve requirements (mandatory bank reserves) and open market operations (buying/selling government securities) also influence liquidity.
Market Effects
- Forex: Reduced reserve requirements increase lending, potentially weakening a currency.
- Gold & Crypto: Increased liquidity can fuel inflation trades, benefiting gold and speculative assets like Bitcoin.
## 1.5 Currency Interventions: Direct Market Manipulation
Some central banks (e.g., BoJ, SNB) actively intervene in Forex markets to stabilize or devalue their currencies.
Trading Considerations
- Forex: Sudden interventions cause sharp moves (e.g., SNB’s 2015 Franc shock).
- Gold & Crypto: A weaker fiat currency may drive demand for alternative stores of value.
## Conclusion: Trading Central Bank Policies in 2025
Central bank policies remain the dominant force in financial markets. Traders must monitor:
- Interest rate decisions (forex trends, gold demand, crypto sentiment).
- QE/QT shifts (liquidity-driven rallies or sell-offs).
- Forward guidance (anticipating policy turns).
By aligning strategies with central bank actions, traders can capitalize on volatility in Forex, gold, and cryptocurrency markets in 2025.
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2. Forex Markets: Policy Divergence and Currency Wars
The foreign exchange (Forex) market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, with daily trading volumes exceeding $7.5 trillion. Central bank policies play a pivotal role in shaping currency valuations, often leading to periods of policy divergence and even currency wars. As we look toward 2025, traders must navigate an environment where major central banks pursue differing monetary strategies, creating volatility and arbitrage opportunities in Forex markets.
The Role of Central Bank Policies in Forex Markets
Central banks influence Forex markets primarily through monetary policy decisions, including interest rate adjustments, quantitative easing (QE), and foreign exchange interventions. When central banks adopt divergent policies—such as one raising rates while another cuts them—currency pairs experience significant fluctuations.
Key Drivers of Policy Divergence in 2025
1. Interest Rate Differentials
– The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) may follow different rate paths due to varying inflation and growth outlooks.
– Example: If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance while the ECB eases policy, the EUR/USD pair could weaken further.
2. Quantitative Tightening vs. Easing
– Some central banks may shrink their balance sheets (QT), while others extend stimulus, leading to capital flow imbalances.
– Example: The Bank of Japan’s persistent yield curve control (YCC) could keep the JPY under pressure if other G10 central banks reduce liquidity.
3. Inflation and Growth Asymmetries
– Economies recovering at different speeds force central banks to adopt contrasting measures.
– Example: Emerging markets (EM) with high inflation may hike rates aggressively, while developed markets (DM) with subdued inflation could delay tightening.
Currency Wars: A Persistent Risk in Forex Markets
Currency wars occur when nations deliberately devalue their currencies to gain trade advantages, often through competitive monetary easing or direct FX interventions. In 2025, the following factors may reignite currency tensions:
1. Competitive Devaluations
– Countries with export-driven economies (e.g., China, Japan) may tolerate weaker currencies to boost competitiveness.
– Example: If China allows the CNY to depreciate to support exports, it could trigger retaliatory moves from trading partners.
2. Central Bank FX Interventions
– Some central banks actively buy or sell their currencies to influence exchange rates.
– Example: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has historically intervened to prevent excessive CHF appreciation.
3. Geopolitical and Trade Tensions
– Trade disputes (e.g., U.S.-China tariffs) often spill over into Forex markets, with currencies used as economic weapons.
– Example: In 2020, the U.S. labeled China a “currency manipulator”; similar tensions could resurface in 2025.
Trading Strategies in a Divergent Policy Environment
Forex traders must adapt to shifting central bank policies by employing the following strategies:
1. Carry Trade Opportunities
– Borrow in low-yielding currencies (JPY, CHF) and invest in high-yielding ones (USD, EM FX).
– Risk: Sudden policy shifts (e.g., Fed rate cuts) can unwind carry trades rapidly.
2. Momentum Trading on Policy Shifts
– Central bank meetings (Fed, ECB, BoE) create short-term volatility.
– Example: A surprise ECB rate cut could trigger a EUR sell-off, offering short-term downside momentum.
3. Hedging Against Currency Wars
– Safe-haven currencies (USD, JPY, CHF) tend to strengthen during FX volatility.
– Gold and cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH) may also act as hedges against competitive devaluations.
Conclusion: Navigating Forex Markets in 2025
The interplay of central bank policies will remain the dominant force in Forex markets in 2025. Traders must monitor:
- Interest rate differentials between major economies.
- FX intervention risks from export-reliant nations.
- Geopolitical developments that could spark currency wars.
By staying attuned to these dynamics, Forex participants can capitalize on policy-driven trends while mitigating risks in an increasingly fragmented monetary landscape.
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3. Gold: The Ultimate Policy Hedge
Introduction
Gold has long been regarded as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty, currency devaluation, and erratic central bank policies. In 2025, as central banks navigate the delicate balance between inflation control, interest rate adjustments, and financial stability, gold’s role as a safe-haven asset is more critical than ever. This section explores why gold remains a premier policy hedge, how central bank actions influence its price, and the strategic considerations for traders and investors in the current macroeconomic environment.
Why Gold Thrives Amid Central Bank Policy Shifts
1. Inflation and Negative Real Interest Rates
Central banks often respond to inflationary pressures by raising interest rates. However, if inflation outpaces rate hikes, real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) turn negative. Historically, gold performs exceptionally well in such environments because:
- Opportunity Cost Declines: Gold, a non-yielding asset, becomes more attractive when real returns on bonds and savings accounts diminish.
- Preservation of Purchasing Power: Investors flock to gold as a store of value when fiat currencies lose purchasing power.
For example, during the post-2020 inflationary surge, gold prices surged as the Federal Reserve initially maintained accommodative policies before aggressively hiking rates. Even as nominal rates rose, persistent inflation kept real rates low, supporting gold demand.
2. Currency Devaluation and Dollar Weakness
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, making it inversely correlated with the dollar’s strength. When central banks engage in monetary easing or excessive money printing, gold often appreciates due to:
- Weakening Fiat Currencies: Expansionary policies dilute currency value, driving demand for hard assets like gold.
- Diversification Away from Dollar Reserves: Central banks themselves accumulate gold to reduce reliance on the dollar, particularly in geopolitically uncertain times.
A prime example is the 2010-2012 period when the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) programs weakened the dollar, propelling gold to all-time highs. In 2025, if major central banks pivot toward rate cuts or renewed stimulus, a similar dynamic could unfold.
3. Geopolitical and Financial Market Stress
Gold’s appeal strengthens during geopolitical crises, banking instability, or equity market volatility. Central bank policies can inadvertently trigger such instability, including:
- Aggressive Rate Hikes Leading to Recessions: Tightening cycles (e.g., 2022-2023) have historically increased gold’s safe-haven demand.
- Banking Sector Crises: Events like the 2023 U.S. regional bank collapses saw gold rally as investors sought safety.
In 2025, any policy missteps—such as delayed rate cuts or premature tightening—could reignite financial stress, reinforcing gold’s hedge status.
Central Bank Gold Reserves: A Strategic Buffer
Central banks themselves are major gold buyers, using bullion to:
- Diversify Reserves Away from Fiat Currencies (e.g., China, Russia, and Turkey increasing holdings).
- Hedge Against Sanctions and Dollar Dominance (e.g., Russia’s de-dollarization strategy post-2014).
- Strengthen Balance Sheets amid global liquidity risks.
In 2023, central banks purchased over 1,000 tonnes of gold, the second-highest annual total on record. If this trend persists in 2025, sustained institutional demand will provide a structural floor for gold prices.
Trading Gold in 2025: Key Considerations
1. Monitoring Central Bank Policy Signals
Traders should watch for:
- Interest Rate Decisions: Dovish pivots (rate cuts) typically boost gold, while hawkish stances pressure it.
- Balance Sheet Policies: Renewed QE or yield curve control could reignite gold’s bull run.
- Currency Interventions: Competitive devaluations (e.g., Japan or Switzerland weakening their currencies) may drive gold higher.
### 2. Technical and Macro Drivers
- Real Yields: Track 10-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) yields—gold tends to rise when real yields fall.
- ETF and Futures Flows: Institutional positioning (e.g., COMEX gold futures, SPDR Gold Trust holdings) provides sentiment clues.
- Mining Supply Constraints: Declining production (due to ESG policies or underinvestment) could tighten supply.
### 3. Alternative Hedges: Gold vs. Bitcoin
While Bitcoin is increasingly dubbed “digital gold,” its correlation with risk assets (stocks) remains higher than gold’s. In 2025:
- Gold may outperform during traditional financial crises or deflationary shocks.
- Bitcoin could rally if central banks inject liquidity (as in 2020-2021), but its volatility makes it a less reliable policy hedge.
## Conclusion: Gold’s Enduring Role in a Policy-Driven Market
As central banks grapple with inflation, recession risks, and currency wars in 2025, gold’s status as the ultimate policy hedge remains unchallenged. Whether as a hedge against dollar debasement, negative real rates, or systemic financial risks, gold offers traders and investors a time-tested safe haven. By closely monitoring central bank actions, macroeconomic trends, and institutional demand, market participants can strategically position themselves to capitalize on gold’s resilience in an uncertain monetary landscape.
For traders, the key takeaway is clear: When central bank policies turn unpredictable, gold shines brightest.
4. Cryptocurrency: Central Banks’ Digital Dilemma
The rise of cryptocurrencies has introduced a complex challenge for central banks worldwide. As decentralized digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum gain mainstream traction, monetary authorities must grapple with their implications for financial stability, monetary policy, and regulatory oversight. Central bank policies are now at a crossroads—whether to resist, regulate, or embrace the crypto revolution. This section explores how central banks are responding to cryptocurrencies, the risks they perceive, and the potential future of digital assets under evolving monetary frameworks.
The Challenge Posed by Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
Cryptocurrencies operate outside traditional banking systems, leveraging blockchain technology to enable peer-to-peer transactions without intermediaries. This decentralization undermines central banks’ control over money supply, interest rates, and capital flows—key levers of monetary policy.
For example:
- Bitcoin’s Fixed Supply: With a capped supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin contrasts sharply with fiat currencies, which central banks can inflate or deflate at will. This challenges inflation-targeting regimes.
- Stablecoins’ Shadow Banking Role: USD-pegged stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) function as quasi-digital dollars, potentially reducing demand for central bank reserves.
The growth of decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms further complicates matters, as they offer lending, borrowing, and trading services without traditional financial intermediaries.
Central Bank Responses: Resistance, Regulation, or Adoption?
Central banks have adopted varying stances toward cryptocurrencies, ranging from outright bans to cautious integration.
1. Regulatory Crackdowns
Some central banks view cryptocurrencies as threats to monetary sovereignty and financial stability. Key concerns include:
- Money Laundering & Illicit Finance: The pseudonymous nature of crypto transactions raises anti-money laundering (AML) risks.
- Investor Protection: Volatility and fraud (e.g., FTX collapse) have prompted stricter oversight.
Examples:
- China’s Crypto Ban (2021): The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) prohibited all crypto transactions, citing financial risks.
- U.S. SEC Enforcement: The Securities and Exchange Commission has aggressively targeted unregistered crypto securities.
### 2. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as a Countermeasure
To retain monetary control, many central banks are developing CBDCs—digital versions of sovereign currencies.
Key CBDC Projects:
- Digital Yuan (e-CNY): China leads in CBDC adoption, using it for domestic and cross-border payments.
- Digital Euro (ECB): The European Central Bank is piloting a digital euro to complement cash.
- FedNow (U.S.): While not a CBDC, the Federal Reserve’s instant payment system reflects a step toward digital currency infrastructure.
CBDCs aim to offer the benefits of crypto (speed, transparency) while maintaining central bank oversight. However, privacy concerns and adoption hurdles remain.
3. Hybrid Approaches: Regulated Crypto Integration
Some jurisdictions are experimenting with regulated crypto frameworks:
- MiCA (EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation): Establishes licensing requirements for crypto firms.
- UAE’s Progressive Stance: Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) provides clear guidelines for crypto businesses.
These models seek to balance innovation with financial stability.
Monetary Policy Implications
Cryptocurrencies could disrupt traditional monetary policy in several ways:
1. Erosion of Capital Controls
- In nations with strict forex controls (e.g., Argentina, Nigeria), citizens use crypto to bypass restrictions, weakening central bank authority.
### 2. Impact on Interest Rate Transmission
- If stablecoins or DeFi lending gain dominance, central banks may struggle to influence borrowing costs via policy rates.
### 3. Dollarization Risks
- In emerging markets, dollar-pegged stablecoins could accelerate de facto dollarization, reducing demand for local currencies.
## Future Outlook: Collaboration or Conflict?
The path forward will likely involve:
- Stronger Global Coordination: The Financial Stability Board (FSB) and IMF are pushing for unified crypto regulations.
- Institutional Crypto Adoption: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF approval signals growing institutional interest, forcing central banks to adapt.
- Technological Integration: Some central banks may eventually incorporate blockchain for settlement efficiency.
### Key Takeaways for Traders & Investors
- Monitor CBDC Developments: Digital currencies could reshape forex and crypto markets.
- Assess Regulatory Shifts: Policy changes (e.g., U.S. crypto legislation) will drive volatility.
- Diversify Strategically: Balance crypto exposure with gold and fiat hedges amid policy uncertainty.
## Conclusion
Cryptocurrencies present a digital dilemma for central banks—forcing them to choose between suppression, regulation, or innovation. While some resist, others are adapting via CBDCs and regulatory frameworks. For forex and crypto traders, understanding central bank policies will be crucial in navigating the evolving financial landscape of 2025 and beyond.
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5. Trading Strategies for Policy-Driven Markets
Central bank policies are among the most influential drivers of financial markets, shaping trends in forex, gold, and cryptocurrencies. Traders who understand how to interpret and react to monetary policy shifts can capitalize on significant opportunities while mitigating risks. This section explores key trading strategies tailored for policy-driven markets, offering actionable insights for navigating interest rate decisions, quantitative easing (QE), and regulatory changes.
1. Anticipating Interest Rate Decisions
Central banks use interest rate adjustments to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. These decisions directly impact currency valuations, gold prices, and even cryptocurrency markets.
Forex Trading Strategies
- Interest Rate Differentials: Higher interest rates typically strengthen a currency due to increased foreign capital inflows. Traders can adopt a carry trade strategy, borrowing in low-yielding currencies (e.g., JPY) and investing in high-yielding ones (e.g., USD or AUD).
- Forward Guidance Analysis: Central banks often signal future policy shifts through statements. Traders should monitor Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) communications to position ahead of rate hikes or cuts.
- Example: In 2024, the Fed’s pause on rate hikes weakened the USD temporarily, while the ECB’s hawkish stance boosted the EUR.
### Gold Trading Strategies
- Inverse Relationship with Real Yields: Gold thrives in low-rate environments as opportunity costs decrease. Traders can go long on gold when central banks signal dovish policies.
- Hedging Against Policy Uncertainty: Gold acts as a safe haven during policy ambiguity (e.g., unexpected rate cuts or geopolitical tensions).
### Cryptocurrency Implications
- Risk-On vs. Risk-Off Sentiment: Bitcoin and altcoins often rally when central banks adopt loose monetary policies (low rates, QE), as investors seek higher returns outside traditional markets.
## 2. Trading Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tightening
QE involves central banks injecting liquidity by purchasing bonds, while tightening reduces money supply. Both policies create distinct market reactions.
Forex Impact
- QE Weakens Currency: Increased money supply devalues the domestic currency (e.g., USD weakened during 2020-2021 Fed QE).
- Tightening Strengthens Currency: Reducing balance sheets (e.g., Fed’s 2022-2023 QT) supports currency appreciation.
Strategy: Fade the initial QE announcement (short-term volatility) but trade the long-term trend (sustained depreciation).
Gold’s Response to QE
- Inflation Hedge: QE raises inflation expectations, boosting gold demand. Traders can enter long positions during QE announcements.
- Liquidity-Driven Rallies: Gold surged during the 2020 pandemic QE programs.
### Cryptocurrency Correlations
- QE as a Bullish Catalyst: Bitcoin’s 2020-2021 bull run coincided with global QE, as investors sought inflation-resistant assets.
- Tightening Pressures Prices: Fed balance sheet reductions in 2022 led to crypto sell-offs.
## 3. Navigating Central Bank Forward Guidance
Forward guidance provides clues on future policy, allowing traders to position early.
Forex Positioning
- Dovish vs. Hawkish Signals: A shift from dovish (rate cuts expected) to hawkish (hikes likely) strengthens a currency.
- Example: ECB hinting at prolonged high rates in 2023 supported the EUR against the USD.
### Gold and Crypto Adjustments
- Dovish Signals Favor Gold: Expectations of prolonged low rates sustain gold’s appeal.
- Crypto’s Sensitivity to Liquidity Expectations: Bitcoin often rallies on hints of future easing.
## 4. Policy Divergence Trades
When central banks move in opposite directions (e.g., Fed hiking while ECB holds), traders exploit currency pair divergences.
Forex Pairs to Watch
- EUR/USD: If the Fed is hawkish and the ECB dovish, short EUR/USD.
- AUD/JPY: Carry trades thrive when the RBA hikes while BoJ remains ultra-loose.
### Gold as a Hedge
- Policy divergence increases volatility, making gold a stabilizing asset.
### Crypto’s Role
- Bitcoin often decouples from traditional policy impacts but reacts to macro liquidity shifts.
## 5. Managing Risk in Policy-Driven Markets
Central bank policies introduce volatility, requiring disciplined risk management.
Key Tactics:
- Stop-Loss Orders: Protect against sudden policy shocks (e.g., unexpected rate hikes).
- Diversification: Balance forex, gold, and crypto exposures to mitigate single-market risks.
- Event Trading: Avoid over-leveraging before major policy announcements (Fed meetings, ECB pressers).
## Conclusion
Successful trading in policy-driven markets hinges on anticipating central bank actions, interpreting forward guidance, and adapting to liquidity shifts. By integrating these strategies—whether through interest rate differentials, QE-driven trends, or policy divergence plays—traders can enhance their performance in forex, gold, and cryptocurrency markets. Staying informed on central bank policies remains the cornerstone of navigating 2025’s evolving financial landscape.
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FAQs: 2025 Forex, Gold, and Cryptocurrency & Central Bank Policies
How do central bank policies influence Forex markets in 2025?
Central bank policies drive Forex markets through:
– Interest rate decisions (higher rates typically strengthen a currency).
– Quantitative easing/tightening (affecting liquidity and exchange rates).
– Forward guidance (signaling future policy shifts).
Divergence between major banks (e.g., the Fed vs. ECB) will fuel currency wars, creating arbitrage opportunities.
Why is gold considered a policy hedge in 2025?
Gold thrives when central bank policies erode confidence in fiat currencies—whether through inflation, negative real rates, or geopolitical instability. In 2025, if central banks pivot to rate cuts or stimulus, gold could surge as a safe haven.
Will cryptocurrencies replace traditional currencies due to central bank policies?
Unlikely. While cryptocurrencies benefit from distrust in centralized monetary policy, most central banks are developing CBDCs (e.g., digital dollar, euro) to retain control. Crypto’s role in 2025 will likely be complementary, not replacement.
What trading strategies work best in policy-driven markets?
- Forex: Trade policy divergence (e.g., long USD if Fed hikes while ECB holds).
– Gold: Accumulate during dovish policy shifts or inflation spikes.
– Crypto: Watch for regulatory clarity—bullish if favorable, bearish if restrictive.
How will CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) impact crypto markets in 2025?
CBDCs could:
– Compete with stablecoins, reducing demand for private alternatives.
– Increase crypto regulation, as governments tighten oversight.
– Boost blockchain adoption, indirectly supporting decentralized assets.
What risks do central bank policies pose to Forex traders in 2025?
Sudden policy reversals (e.g., unexpected rate hikes/cuts) can trigger extreme volatility. Traders must monitor economic data (CPI, employment) that influences central bank decisions.
Can gold prices fall if central banks tighten policies aggressively?
Yes. If central banks hike rates sharply (fighting inflation), gold may weaken due to higher opportunity costs (no yield). However, long-term demand stays strong if inflation persists.
How should crypto traders prepare for 2025 central bank policies?
- Track CBDC developments (could suppress or legitimize crypto).
– Watch macro trends (liquidity shifts affect crypto volatility).
– Hedge with gold or stablecoins during policy uncertainty.